Research
Openings before a steeper or flatter first minute
Which kinds of opening sit before a steeper or flatter first minute of YouTube's "most replayed" heatmap?
Computed from long videos of 2 minutes and over with an opening read and YouTube's "most replayed" heatmap stored: 86 in the first run and 90 in the second, each run a sample of different channels. The index holds the videos our users' searches found, so its medians sit above YouTube's as a whole. Each finding is counted twice, on two samples of different channels. Counted Oct 27, 2026.
Fall: the first bin of YouTube’s “most replayed” heatmap minus the mean of the bins covering 50 to 60 seconds. The heatmap is replay intensity, its highest bin 1, not retention. Each number is the median fall of the group minus the median fall of every other opening in the same run: above 0 is a steeper first minute, below 0 a flatter one. A group is shown with at least 8 videos, and so are the others.
By hook type
| Hook type | First run | Second run | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hook type: contrarian claim | -0.14fall 0.18 over 20 videos, against 0.32 over the other 66 | +0.06fall 0.30 over 28 videos, against 0.24 over the other 62 | Not reproduced |
| Hook type: curiosity gap | +0.15fall 0.41 over 10 videos, against 0.26 over the other 76 | +0.04fall 0.29 over 12 videos, against 0.25 over the other 78 | Not reproduced |
| Hook type: direct command | Too few: 4 videos, 82 others | Too few: 3 videos, 87 others | Too few |
| Hook type: identity callout | -0.03fall 0.26 over 10 videos, against 0.29 over the other 76 | Too few: 6 videos, 84 others | Too few |
| Hook type: other | Too few: 0 videos, 86 others | Too few: 1 video, 89 others | Too few |
| Hook type: pattern interrupt | Too few: 1 video, 85 others | Too few: 0 videos, 90 others | Too few |
| Hook type: promise payoff | -0.32fall 0.03 over 16 videos, against 0.35 over the other 70 | -0.13fall 0.14 over 15 videos, against 0.27 over the other 75 | Reproducedflatter first minute |
| Hook type: question | Too few: 7 videos, 79 others | Too few: 6 videos, 84 others | Too few |
| Hook type: specific number | Too few: 6 videos, 80 others | Too few: 0 videos, 90 others | Too few |
| Hook type: stakes threat | +0.11fall 0.38 over 8 videos, against 0.27 over the other 78 | Too few: 7 videos, 83 others | Too few |
| Hook type: story open | Too few: 4 videos, 82 others | -0.06fall 0.20 over 12 videos, against 0.27 over the other 78 | Too few |
By how the first seconds begin
| Opens with | First run | Second run | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opens with: cold open | +0.13fall 0.32 over 62 videos, against 0.20 over the other 24 | +0.01fall 0.27 over 69 videos, against 0.26 over the other 21 | Not reproduced |
| Opens with: greeting | -0.24fall 0.09 over 10 videos, against 0.32 over the other 76 | -0.12fall 0.14 over 10 videos, against 0.27 over the other 80 | Reproducedflatter first minute |
| Opens with: other | Too few: 1 video, 85 others | Too few: 0 videos, 90 others | Too few |
| Opens with: question | +0.11fall 0.39 over 13 videos, against 0.28 over the other 73 | Too few: 7 videos, 83 others | Too few |
| Opens with: sponsor | Too few: 0 videos, 86 others | Too few: 1 video, 89 others | Too few |
| Opens with: teaser | Too few: 0 videos, 86 others | Too few: 3 videos, 87 others | Too few |
Left out 4 with no heatmap read yet, 32 that YouTube gives no heatmap, 0 under 2 minutes, and 0 whose heatmap stops before 60 seconds.